Essential_USDJPY
- Whole period
- 2 years
- 1 year
- 6 months
- 3 months
- 1 month
Real Performance (Pips)
※Displays results including swaps and fees
Forward testing (Profit)
Monthly Statistics
- Jan
- Feb
- Mar
- Apr
- May
- Jun
- Jul
- Aug
- Sep
- Oct
- Nov
- Dec
Calendar for Months
About EA's Strategy
Translating...
EA説明
本EAだけでなく私が開発する上で常にこころがけていることですが、変に多数のインジケーターをこねくり回して、表面上のBTの成績をよくしてもリアルでは全く通用せず、根拠が自身の頭で理解できるシンプルなロジックのみに立脚したEAを開発することを心掛けております。
本EAについては、ボラティリティの拡大を常に監視し、トレンド発生時のだまし上げ、だまし下げを徹底的に狙っていくEAとなります。
相場においては、時に様々な要因により、本来の流れと逆行して一時的に揺らぎが発生することがあります。しかし、それは一時的なものであり、トレンド転換を起こすほどには至らないケースがほとんどです。
この、トレンド発生時のだまし上げ、だまし下げがなぜ有効かといいますと、戻したところで、だましを仕掛けたポジションの利益確定、またアルゴリズムや一般参加者の押し目買い、戻り売りの注文が入ってき、さらにだまし上げ下げに騙されたポジションの損切を一気に巻き込んでトレンドを強化して本来の流れに戻っていく特性があります。
このチャートパターンだけを本EAは徹底的に狙ってい行きます。
利益確定と損切について
利確については、限界運動量まで達した時点、またはダラダラと利益が伸びていった場合については、トレーリングストップにて利益確定を行います。
残念ながら、騙しと見込んでエントリーしたものの、トレンド転換となってしまった場合は損切を行います。損切については、利確損切などで極力被害が少なくなったポイントで損切するように設計していますが、まれにダラダラと逆行するパターンとなってしまった場合はSL=100pipsに達した時点での損切となります。
優位性についてはデータが物語っています
本EAについては、インジケーターは3つのみを用いており、成績の見栄えをよくするための、いわゆる最適化という作業をおこなっていないEAになりますが、2000~2022の22年間において、スプレット手数料1pipsを飲み込んで、PF=1.47、1トレード3.4pipsからスプレット1pipsを引いた、+2.4pipsの期待値を残しながら、口座残高最高値を更新し続けるロジックになります。
ただし本EAが苦手とする相場もあります。
ただ、どんな相場でも勝てます、といったわけではなく、どんなEAでもそうですが、本EAにも苦手な相場というのは存在します。
フィルターで消すこともできますが、そんなことをしても未来には何の役にも立たず、ロジックの頑強性を損ねるだけでありますので、負けを受け入れるという選択をしました。
以上の年別損益をご覧ください。本年は息を吹き返していますが、2019-2021年については、負け(2019年)あるいは低収益期であったことがわかります。
これらがどんな相場であったかといえば、
黄色の期間で、このころからFXをされていた方は記憶に新しいかと思いますが、歴史的な低ボラティリティで方向性が安定せず、フラフラ110円あたりを大人たちの都合がいいかのようにさまよっていた時期となります。これらの時期においては、本EAについても方向性を誤ってしまう割合が高まって結果がよくありませんでしたが、昨今の金利差拡大、世界情勢の不安定化などにより、円安傾向でハイボラティリティな傾向はしばらく持続する蓋然性が高いと考えられ、本EAの得意とする相場が続くと考えております。
Price:¥39,800 (taxed)
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Sales from : 07/31/2022 22:32
Price:¥39,800 (taxed)
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Just like discretionary trading, there are those that decide trading and settlement timings by combining indicators, those that repeatedly buy or sell at certain price (pips) intervals, and trading methods that utilize market anomalies or temporal features. The variety is as rich as the methods in discretionary trading.
To categorize simply,
・Scalping (Type where trades are completed within a few minutes to a few hours),
・Day Trading (Type where trades are completed within several hours to about a day),
・Swing Trading (Type where trades are conducted over a relatively long period of about 1 day to 1 week)
・Grid/Martingale Trading (Holding multiple positions at equal or unequal intervals and settling all once a profit is made. Those that gradually increase the lot number are called Martingale.)
・Anomaly EA (Mid-price trading, early morning scalping)
However, a substantial advantage of automated trading is its ability to limit and predict risks beforehand.
[Risk]
Inherent to forex trading are the trading risks that undeniably exist in automated trading as well.
・Lot Size Risk
Increasing the lot size forcibly due to a high winning rate can, in rare instances, depending on the EA, lead to substantial Pips loss when a loss occurs. It is crucial to verify the SL Pips and the number of positions held before operating with an appropriate lot.
・Rapid Market Fluctuation Risk
There are instances where market prices fluctuate rapidly due to index announcements or unforeseen news. System trading does not account for such unpredictable market movements, rendering it incapable of making decisions on whether to settle in advance or abstain from trading. As a countermeasure, utilizing tools that halt the EA based on indicator announcements or the VIX (fear index) is also possible.
[Benefits]
・Operates 24 hours a day
If there is an opportunity, system trading will execute trades on your behalf consistently. It proves to be an extremely convenient tool for those unable to allocate time to trading.
・Trades dispassionately without being swayed by emotions
There is an absence of self-serving rule modifications, a common human tendency, such as increasing the lot size after consecutive losses in discretionary trading or, conversely, hastily securing profits with minimal gains.
・Accessible for beginners
To engage in Forex trading, there is no prerequisite to study; anyone using system trading will achieve the same results.
[Disadvantages]
・Cannot increase trading frequency at will
Since system trading operates based on pre-programmed conditions, depending on the type of EA, it might only execute trades a few times a month.
・Suitability may vary with market conditions
Depending on the trading type of the EA, there are periods more suited to trend trading and periods more suited to contrarian trading, making consistent results across all periods unlikely. While the previous year might have yielded good results, this year's performance might not be as promising, necessitating some level of discretion in determining whether it is an opportune time to operate.
・MT4 (MetaTrader 4. An account needs to be opened with a Forex company that offers MT4.)
・EA (A program for automated trading)
・The operating deposit required to run the EA
・A PC that can run 24 hours or a VPS (Virtual Private Server), where a virtual PC is hosted on a cloud server to run MT4.
Additionally, there are both demo and real accounts available. You can experience trading with virtual money by applying for a demo account. After opening a real account, you select the connection server assigned by the Forex broker, enter the password, and log in to the account.
When you deposit money into your account using the method specified by the forex broker, the funds will be reflected in your MT4 account, and you can trade.
Firstly, download the purchased EA file from your My Page on GogoJungle. You will download a zip (compressed) file, so right-click to extract it and retrieve the file named ‘◯◯◯ (EA name)_A19GAw09 (any 8 alphanumeric characters).ex4’ from inside.
Next, launch MT4 and navigate to ‘File’ → ‘Open Data Folder’ → ‘MQL4’ → ‘Experts’ folder, and place the ex4 file inside. Once done, close MT4 and restart it. Then, go to the upper menu ‘Tools’ → ‘Options’, and under ‘Expert Advisors’, ensure ‘Allow automated trading’ and ‘Allow DLL imports’ are checked, then press OK to close.
The necessary currency pair and time frame for the correct operation of the EA are specified on the EA sales page. Refer to this information and open the chart of the correct currency pair time frame (e.g., USDJPY5M for a USD/Yen 5-minute chart).
Within the menu navigator, under ‘Expert Advisors’, you will find the EA file name you placed earlier. Click to select it, then drag & drop it directly onto the chart to load the EA. Alternatively, you can double-click the EA name to load it onto the selected chart.
If ‘Authentication Success’ appears in the upper left of the chart, the authentication has been successful. To operate the EA, you need to keep your PC running 24 hours. Therefore, either disable the automatic sleep function or host MT4 on a VPS and operate the EA.
If you want to use it with an account other than the authenticated one, you need to reset the registered account.
To reset the account, close the MT4 where the Web authentication is registered, then go to My Page on GogoJungle > Use > Digital Contents > the relevant EA > press the ‘Reset’ button for the registration number, and the registered account will be released.
When the account is in a reset state, using the EA with another MT4 account will register a new account.
Also, you can reset the account an unlimited number of times.
→ Items to Check When EA is Not Operating
1 lot = 100,000 currency units
0.1 lot = 10,000 currency units
0.01 lot = 1,000 currency units
For USD/JPY, 1 lot would mean holding 100,000 dollars.
The margin required to hold lots is determined by the leverage set by the Forex broker.
If the leverage is 25 times, the margin required to hold 10,000 currency units of USD/JPY would be:
10000*109 (※ at a rate of 109 yen per dollar) ÷ 25 = 43,600 yen.
・Risk-Return Ratio: Total Profit and Loss during the period ÷ Maximum Drawdown
・Maximum Drawdown: The largest unrealized loss during the operation period
・Maximum Position Number: This is the maximum number of positions that the EA can theoretically hold at the same time
・TP (Take Profit): The set profit-taking Pips (or specified amount, etc.) in the EA's settings
・SL (Stop Loss): The set maximum loss pips (or specified amount, etc.) in the EA's settings
・Trailing Stop: Instead of settling at a specified Pips, once a certain profit is made, the settlement SL is raised at a certain interval (towards the profit), maximizing the profit. It is a method of settlement.
・Risk-Reward Ratio (Payoff Ratio): Average Profit ÷ Average Loss
・Hedging: Holding both buy and sell positions simultaneously (Some FX companies also have types where hedging is not allowed)
・MT4 Beginner's Guide
・Understanding System Trading Performance (Forward and Backtesting)
・Choosing Your First EA! Calculating Recommended Margin for EAs
・Comparing MT4 Accounts Based on Spread, Swap, and Execution Speed
・What is Web Authentication?
・Checklist for When Your EA Isn't Working